9.4.18
Game one is one days away and it’s time to do some analysis and make my pick. There’s a lot to consider in figuring out who will come out on top.
First, let’s talk Eagles. The Champs come in with what most consider a better team on paper than last year. Most importantly, QB Carson Wentz is returning, followed by LT Malcolm Jenkins and RB Darren Sprouls. In the off season, the Eagles acquired DE Michael Bennett from the Seahawks and DT Haloti Ngata from the Ravens. They will make a formidable D-line even better. The draft was fruitful bring in an exciting rookie TE Dallas Goedert that should be a great compliment to TE Zach Ertz and a matchup problem for opposing linebackers and safeties. The Eagles secondary should be upgraded even with the loss of DB Patrick Robinson earlier this year. The Eagles’ gamble with the drafting of T Jordan Mailata seems to be paying off. But there are questions?!
The preseason has raised some tough issues for the Birds. When will Wentz be ready to play now that Foles has been named as the starter on Thursday. Foles struggled through the preseason with interceptions, fumbles, injuries, and poor decisions. As the Thursday approaches the fans and the media wonder what Foles will show up. The Eagles defense played well over the four games. The running backs are deep. The O-line was a bit shaky. There will be some missing pieces, Mack Hollins and Alshon Jeffery, who may not return until four games into the season. TEs Ertz and Goedert should be a big part of the Eagles offense. Foles will need to get into an early rhythm and that requires an efficient running game and good protection. Pederson must build his confidence early with simple reads, RTOs, and high-percentage passes.
Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Now to the Falcons. The Atlanta Falcons return with their established veteran offense lead by QB Matt Ryan (2017: 4095 yds passing) with solid all-pro wideouts Julio Jones (1,444 yds receiving, 3 TDs) and Mohamed Sanu (703 yds, 5TDs). The backfield is solid with Devonta Freeman (865 yds rushing), Tevin Coleman (628 yds, 5 TDs) and company. The Falcons defense is fast and good. The Falcons came close last year in defensive and hard-fought Division Game against the Eagles (15-10L). They will be motivated and wanting revenge.
Keys for the Eagles: It will be an emotional evening for the Eagles with the raising of the championship banner. Their offense must get going early. The starting unit failed to score a TD all preseason. They must avoid early and late turnovers. Penalties were also a problem for them, particularly the new helmet rule. Foles must protect the ball. Expect the Eagles to go double TE often due to the absence of WR Jeffery. WR Agholor will be called upon to carry the load outside and in the slot. The O-line protected him well in last year’s playoff game. The Eagles secondary should give the front four time to get to Ryan. Blitzing Ryan has proven to be productive in the past. Lastly, the Eagles will need their 12 man, the fans.
Keys for Atlanta: Protect Matt Ryan from the front four pass rush with a consistent and persistent run game. The Falcons are suffering from what I’ve seen happen to Super Bowl losing teams. Several seasons following they suffer from attrition. This is what has happened to Seattle. The team’s competitiveness slowly steps down year after year accelerated by the loss of veteran players. Atlanta has a great QB and great defense to lean on. Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford are great corners. The defense plays opposing offenses straight up. That will keep them competitive. But only time will tell.
The Eagles are playing against history. Few teams have won back-to-back Super Bowls. They have a talented team but they must come together. Every game the Eagles play will be their opponent’s Super Bowl. So the Birds have to figure out how to stay motivated and raise their game. Things tend to balance out over time. Teams have to give back what they been given. The Eagles have to stay hungry, focused, and determined. Coach Pederson has been a great situational coach and will teach and lead the Eagles when they face adversity this season.
As of now, the Eagles are -2.5 favorites. That’s not much for the champs. This game could go either way. Turnovers and preseason rust could be a factor. Both defenses will leave their mark on the game. The QB that best protects the ball and makes plays when they are there will give their team the edge. The Super Bowl champion is 38-8-1 in regular season openers. That is Super Bowl champs have won their first game of the season 81.9 percent of the time. So I give the Eagles the edge, if they show up and play like the Champs can. A lot of this rests upon Foles. He has amazing highs and woeful lows. Pederson has been good at getting the best out of Foles. He will have him ready. Foles will have to play big once again under pressure. His performance will have a direct influence on when Carson Wentz returns.
